745 citations · 1.2k across the 13 of their papers we have counts for
15 papers
Towards a Theory of Modular Natives: Explaining Superscaling, China's Greatest Innovation Yet
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Maria Christodoulou
First, we present a new theory of "modular natives." A modular native is a basic building block that is born modular, e.g., a solar cell. The theory predicts that using modular nat…
Do Projects Learn Across Space and Time? Evidence from the Olympics
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier
Do projects learn across space and time? The Olympics, among the largest publicly funded programmes in the world, offer a unique empirical setting. Theoretically, the Games seem id…
Uniqueness Bias: Why It Matters, How to Curb It
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, M. D. Christodoulou +1
The paper explores "uniqueness bias," a behavioral bias defined as the tendency of planners and managers to see their decisions as singular. For the first time, uniqueness bias is…
The Oxford Olympics Study 2024: Are Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games Coming Down?
Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg
The present paper is an update of the "Oxford Olympics Study 2016" (Flyvbjerg et al. 2016). We document that the Games remain costly and continue to have large cost overruns, to a…
The Empirical Reality of IT Project Cost Overruns: Discovering A Power-Law Distribution
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Jong Seok Lee +3
If managers assume a normal or near-normal distribution of Information Technology (IT) project cost overruns, as is common, and cost overruns can be shown to follow a power-law dis…
Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Daniel Lunn
The Olympic Games are the largest, highest-profile, and most expensive megaevent hosted by cities and nations. Average sports-related costs of hosting are $12.0 billion. Non-sports…