1k citations · 3.5k across the 34 of their papers we have counts for
31 papers · 1 filter
Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled
Bent Flyvbjerg
Scale-up is the process of growing a venture in size. The paper identifies modularity and speed as keys to successful scale-up. On that basis four types of scale-up are identified:…
Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Daniel Lunn
The Olympic Games are the largest, highest-profile, and most expensive megaevent hosted by cities and nations. Average sports-related costs of hosting are $12.0 billion. Non-sports…
Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage
Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Andi Garavaglia +1
This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable project…
Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier
This report was commissioned by the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project to provide the national and international context in which the Muskrat Falls Project…
Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier
This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and bene…
Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong's Major Roadworks Projects
Bent Flyvbjerg, Chi-keung Hon, Wing Huen Fok
Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Develo…