1k citations · 3.5k across the 34 of their papers we have counts for
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How to Solve Big Problems: Bespoke Versus Platform Strategies
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg
How should government and business solve big problems? In bold leaps or in many smaller moves? We show that bespoke, one-off projects are prone to poorer outcomes than projects bui…
Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview
Bent Flyvbjerg
Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most importan…
Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?
Bent Flyvbjerg
This paper asks and answers the question of whether Kahneman's planning fallacy or Hirschman's Hiding Hand best explain performance in capital investment projects. I agree with my…
The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games
Bent Flyvbjerg, Allison Stewart, Alexander Budzier
Given that Olympic Games held over the past decade each have cost USD 8.9 billion on average, the size and financial risks of the Games warrant study. The objectives of the Oxford…
Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale
Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier +1
In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver poor outcomes as "fragility," a notion suggested by Nassim Taleb. A thing or syste…
The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large
Bent Flyvbjerg, Cass R. Sunstein
We identify and document a new principle of economic behavior: the principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand. In a famous discussion, Albert Hirschman celebrated the Hiding Hand, whi…