3 citations · 9 across the 12 of their papers we have counts for
12 papers
Drivers of Transient Dynamics and Persistence in Dengue: Insights from Sensitivity and Stochastic Modeling
Cesar Alberto Rosales-Alcantar, Marcos A. Capistrán
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidem…
Bayesian sequential data assimilation for COVID-19 forecasting
Maria L. Daza-Torres, Marcos A. Capistrán, Antonio Capella +1
We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation method for COVID-19 forecasting. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and pr…
Bayesian Analysis of Glucose Dynamics during the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT)
Hugo Flores-Arguedas, Marcos A. Capistrán
In this paper, we propose a model of the dynamics of the blood glucose level during an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT). This dynamic includes the action of insulin and glucagon…
Error control in the numerical posterior distribution in the Bayesian UQ analysis of a semilinear evolution PDE
Maria L. Daza-Torres, J. Cricelio Montesinos-López, Marcos A. Capistrán +2
We elaborate on results obtained in \cite{christen2018} for controlling the numerical posterior error for Bayesian UQ problems, now considering forward maps arising from the soluti…
A computational geometry method for the inverse scattering problem
Maria L. Daza-Torres, Juan Antonio Infante del Río, Marcos A. Capistrán +1
In this paper we demonstrate a computational method to solve the inverse scattering problem for a star-shaped, smooth, penetrable obstacle in 2D. Our method is based on classical i…
Posterior distribution existence and error control in Banach spaces in the Bayesian approach to UQ in inverse problems
J. Andrés Christen, Marcos A. Capistrán, M. Luisa Daza-Torres +2
We generalize the results of \cite{Capistran2016} on expected Bayes factors (BF) to control the numerical error in the posterior distribution to an infinite dimensional setting whe…
Early pathogen replacement in a model of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus with partial vaccination. A computational study
Yury E. García, Marcos A. Capistrán
In this paper, we carry out a computational study using the spectral decomposition of the fluctuations of a two-pathogen epidemic model around its deterministic attractor, i.e., st…
Inference for stochastic kinetic models from multiple data sources for joint estimation of infection dynamics from aggregate reports and virological data
Oksana A. Chkrebtii, Yury E. García, Marcos A. Capistrán +1
Before the current pandemic, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were the leading etiological agents of seasonal acute respiratory infections (ARI) around the world. In…
Numerical posterior distribution error control and expected Bayes Factors in the bayesian Uncertainty Quantification of Inverse Problems
J. Andrés Christen, Marcos A. Capistrán, Miguel Ángel Moreles
In the bayesian analysis of Inverse Problems most relevant cases the forward maps (FM, or regressor function) are defined in terms of a system of (O, P)DE's with intractable soluti…
Modeling Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) data and its Bayesian Inverse Problem
Nicolás Kuschinski, J. Andrés Christen, Adriana Monroy +1
One common way to test for diabetes is the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test or OGTT. Most common methods for the analysis of the data on this test are wasteful of much of the informatio…
An analysis of the interaction between influenza and respiratory syncytial virus based on acute respiratory infection records
Yendry N. Arguedas-Flatts, Marcos A. Capistrán, J. Andrés Christen +1
Under the hypothesis that both influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the two leading causes of acute respiratory infections (ARI), in this paper we have used a standa…
A Generic Multivariate Distribution for Counting Data
Marcos Capistrán, J. Andrés Christen
Motivated by the need, in some Bayesian likelihood free inference problems, of imputing a multivariate counting distribution based on its vector of means and variance-covariance ma…