14 citations · 21 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers
Filtering and improved Uncertainty Quantification in the dynamic estimation of effective reproduction numbers
Marcos A. Capistrán, Antonio Capella, J. Andrés Christen
The effective reproduction number measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both…
Forecasting hospital demand during COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks
Marcos A. Capistran, Antonio Capella, J. Andres Christen
We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and sympt…
Estimating a pressure dependent thermal conductivity coefficient with applications in food technology
Marcos A Capistran, Juan Antonio Infante del Rio
In this paper we introduce a method to estimate a pressure dependent thermal conductivity coefficient arising in a heat diffusion model with applications in food technology. To add…
Bayesian Analysis of ODE's: solver optimal accuracy and Bayes factors
Marcos Capistrán, J. Andrés Christen, Sophie Donnet
In most relevant cases in the Bayesian analysis of ODE inverse problems, a numerical solver needs to be used. Therefore, we cannot work with the exact theoretical posterior distrib…
Towards Uncertainty Quantification and Inference in the stochastic SIR Epidemic Model
Marcos A. Capistrán, J. Andrés Christen, Jorge X. Velasco-Hernández
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SI…