12 citations · 13 across the 2 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers
Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks
Wajid Ali, Christopher E. Overton, Robert R. Wilkinson +1
The basic reproduction number, , is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating from incidence data early in the epid…
Approximating quasi-stationary behaviour in network-based SIS dynamics
Christopher E. Overton, Robert R. Wilkinson, Adedapo Loyinmi +2
Deterministic approximations to stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible models typically predict a stable endemic steady-state when above threshold. This can be hard to relat…
Impact of the infectious period on epidemics
Robert R. Wilkinson, Kieran J. Sharkey
The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markov…
The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models
Robert R. Wilkinson, Frank G. Ball, Kieran J. Sharkey
We consider a very general stochastic model for an SIR epidemic on a network which allows an individual's infectious period, and the time it takes to contact each of its neighbours…
The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic
Robert R. Wilkinson, Frank G. Ball, Kieran J. Sharkey
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for…