Message passing and moment closure for susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics on finite networks

Abstract

The message passing approach of Karrer and Newman [Phys. Rev. E 82, 016101 (2010)] is an exact and practicable representation of susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics on finite trees. Here we show that, assuming Poisson contact processes, a pair-based moment closure representation [Sharkey, J. Math. Biol. 57, 311 (2008)] can be derived from their equations. We extend the applicability of both representations and discuss their relative merits. On arbitrary time-independent networks, as was shown for the message passing formalism, the pair-based moment closure equations also provide a rigorous lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles at all times.

7 pages, 2 figures

References in corpus (3)

• A message passing approach for general epidemic models
• Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease
• Co-circulation of infectious diseases on networks

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• Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks
• Mean-field models of dynamics on networks via moment closure: an automated procedure
• On the accuracy of message-passing approaches to percolation in complex networks