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stat.ME2026
Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Aditya Basarkar, Emmett B. Kendall, David Randahl +2
Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a cou…
stat.ME2025
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, HÃ¥vard Hegre
Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictio…