3 papers
stat.ME2026
Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Aditya Basarkar, Emmett B. Kendall, David Randahl +2
Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a cou…
stat.AP2026
pintervals: an R package for model-agnostic prediction intervals
David Randahl, Anders Hjort, Jonathan P. Williams
The \pkg{pintervals} package aims to provide a unified framework for constructing prediction intervals and calibrating predictions in a model-agnostic setting using set-aside calib…
stat.ME2025
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, HÃ¥vard Hegre
Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictio…