15 citations · 16 across the 3 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers
Loss-based prior for CART and BART models
F. Serafini, F. Leisen, C. Villa +1
We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due t…
Bayesian modelling of the temporal evolution of seismicity using the ETAS.inlabru R-package
Mark Naylor, Francesco Serafini, Finn Lindgren +1
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains challenging…
Approximation of bayesian Hawkes process models with Inlabru
Francesco Serafini, Finn Lindgren, Mark Naylor
Hawkes process are very popular mathematical tools for modelling phenomena exhibiting a \textit{self-exciting} or \textit{self-correcting} behaviour. Typical examples are earthquak…
Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: Binary events in a low probability environment
Francesco Serafini, Mark Naylor, Finn Lindgren +2
Operational earthquake forecasting for risk management and communication during seismic sequences depends on our ability to select an optimal forecasting model. To do this, we need…