collaborators

6 papers

stat.ME2026

Non-overlap Average Treatment Effect Bounds

Herbert P. Susmann, Alec McClean, Iván Díaz

The average treatment effect (ATE), the mean difference in potential outcomes under treatment and control, is a canonical causal effect. Overlap, which says that all subjects have…

stat.ME2026

Causal-DRF: Conditional Kernel Treatment Effect Estimation using Distributional Random Forest

Jeffrey Näf, Junhyung Park, Herbert Susmann

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is a commonly targeted statistical parameter for measuring the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. However, the CATE wi…

stat.AP2026

The Counterfactual Combine: A Causal Framework for Player Evaluation

Herbert P. Susmann, Antonio D'Alessandro

Evaluating sports players based on their performance shares core challenges with evaluating healthcare providers based on patient outcomes. Drawing on recent advances in healthcare…

stat.AP2025

Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations

Herbert Susmann, Adrian E. Raftery

Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration pat…

stat.ME2025

Computationally and statistically efficient estimation of time-smoothed counterfactual curves

Herbert P. Susmann, Nicholas T. Williams, Richard Liu +2

Longitudinal causal inference is concerned with defining, identifying, and estimating the effect of a time-varying intervention on a time-varying outcome that is indexed by a follo…

stat.ME2025

Asymptotically Efficient Data-adaptive Penalized Shrinkage Estimation with Application to Causal Inference

Herbert P. Susmann, Yiting Li, Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco +2

A rich literature exists on constructing non-parametric estimators with optimal asymptotic properties. In addition to asymptotic guarantees, it is often of interest to design estim…