10 papers
Strategic Network Abandonment
Sandro Claudio Lera, Andreas Haupt
Socio-economic networks, from cities and firms to collaborative projects, often appear resilient for long periods before experiencing rapid, cascading decline as participation erod…
Limits of Predictability in Civil Litigation
Sandro Claudio Lera, Shahrokh Firouzi, Jonathan Habshush +1
Legal practice routinely relies on informal assessments of case strength, yet no large-scale empirical benchmark exists for how predictable civil-litigation outcomes actually are.…
The Determinants of Judicial Promotion: Politics, Prestige, and Performance
Ilya Davidson, Sandro Claudio Lera, Robert Mahari
Judicial promotions shape the composition of higher courts, yet their determinants remain poorly understood. This paper examines promotion from U.S. District Courts to Courts of Ap…
HawkesRank: Event-Driven Centrality for Real-Time Importance Ranking
Didier Sornette, Yishan Luo, Sandro Claudio Lera
Quantifying influence in networks is important across science, economics, and public health, yet widely used centrality measures remain limited: they rely on static representations…
Why AI Alignment Failure Is Structural: Learned Human Interaction Structures and AGI as an Endogenous Evolutionary Shock
Didier Sornette, Sandro Claudio Lera, Ke Wu
Recent reports of large language models (LLMs) exhibiting behaviors such as deception, threats, or blackmail are often interpreted as evidence of alignment failure or emergent mali…
Social feedback amplifies emotional language in online video live chats
Yishan Luo, Didier Sornette, Sandro Claudio Lera
A growing share of human interactions now occurs online, where the expression and perception of emotions are often amplified and distorted. Yet, the interplay between different emo…