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physics.geo-ph2025
Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughmann, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS <…
physics.geo-ph2024
Nowcasting Earthquakes with QuakeGPT: Methods and First Results
John B. Rundle, Geoffrey Fox, Andrea Donnellan +1
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seis…
physics.geo-ph2022
Does the Catalog of California Earthquakes, with Aftershocks Included, Contain Information about Future Large Earthquakes?
John B. Rundle, Andrea Donnellan, Geoffrey Fox +2
Yes. Interval statistics have been used to conclude that major earthquakes are random events in time and cannot be anticipated or predicted. Machine learning is a powerful new tech…