4 papers
Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughmann, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS <…
Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting
Alireza Jafari, Geoffrey Fox, John B. Rundle +2
Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities remains a crucial and enduring objective aimed at reducing casualties. This mul…
Nowcasting Earthquakes with QuakeGPT: Methods and First Results
John B. Rundle, Geoffrey Fox, Andrea Donnellan +1
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seis…
Does the Catalog of California Earthquakes, with Aftershocks Included, Contain Information about Future Large Earthquakes?
John B. Rundle, Andrea Donnellan, Geoffrey Fox +2
Yes. Interval statistics have been used to conclude that major earthquakes are random events in time and cannot be anticipated or predicted. Machine learning is a powerful new tech…