4 papers
Making Alternative Data Work: Context-Augmented LLMs for Financial Forecasting
Jihoon Kwon, Lawrence Liu, Daekyung Park +15
When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction ma…
When do prophets profit in prediction markets?
Anri Gu, Nicole Kagan, Alec Sun +2
Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes how a better-than-market forecast c…
Forecasting Future Language: Context Design for Mention Markets
Sumin Kim, Jihoon Kwon, Yoon Kim +9
Mention markets, a type of prediction market in which contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a future public event, require accurate probabilist…
LLM as a Risk Manager: LLM Semantic Filtering for Lead-Lag Trading in Prediction Markets
Sumin Kim, Minjae Kim, Jihoon Kwon +7
Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are directly tied to natural-language descriptions, yet discovering robust lead-lag relationships remains…