4 papers · 1 filter
Projection, Memory, and the Validity of Scalar Early-Warning Signals: A Schur--Volterra Theory with an AMOC Application
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
Early-warning signals are usually computed from one or a few observables, although the underlying dynamics are high dimensional. Projection creates a structural ambiguity: the same…
Where should the null live? Surrogate tests for clustering of threshold-derived air-quality indices, with application to PM2.5 exceedances in Chile
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
Air-quality and climate monitoring routinely convert native-resolution measurements into exceedance counts before testing whether high values cluster in time. A surrogate null can…
Memory operator ensembles indicate proximity to criticality in simulated AMOC transitions
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
Classical early-warning signals assume that recovery slows near a tipping point, but in a well-studied CESM simulation of AMOC collapse, autocorrelation and variance decrease inste…
Regime-Switching Volterra Operators: Modal Stability and Quenched Amplification
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
We develop an operator-theoretic framework for finite-dimensional, regime-dependent Volterra equations with completely monotone memory kernels, dissipative network coupling, and Ha…