7 papers
Memory compression and physical state augmentation favor different AMOC prediction tasks
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is monitored and emulated through reduced indices, but such projections discard thermohaline structure and may require either explic…
Projected climate memory and inherited warm-tail risk in accelerated European summer warming
Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Diego Rivera
European summer warming reflects interactions among background change, persistent ocean--land--circulation states, and same-season variability. We develop an empirical reduced-dyna…
A Spatial Persistence Gradient in European Warming Consistent with North Atlantic Cold-Blob Influence
Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Diego Rivera
Europe is warming faster than the global mean, yet the spatial organisation of this acceleration remains incompletely understood. Using ERA5 reanalysis for 1950--2024 across 28 IPC…
Memory operator ensembles indicate proximity to criticality in simulated AMOC transitions
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
Classical early-warning signals assume that recovery slows near a tipping point, but in a well-studied CESM simulation of AMOC collapse, autocorrelation and variance decrease inste…
Regime-Switching Volterra Operators: Modal Stability and Quenched Amplification
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
We develop an operator-theoretic framework for finite-dimensional, regime-dependent Volterra equations with completely monotone memory kernels, dissipative network coupling, and Ha…
Quenched Amplification and Tail Shaping in Networked Systems with Memory and Regime Switching
Mauricio Herrera-Marín
Networked systems operating under intermittent adverse conditions and long memory can remain stable on average while exhibiting rare but extreme trajectory-level excursions. We stu…