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econ.GN2026
The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
Maksym Nechepurenko
Prediction-market price moves are widely treated as informationally equivalent: a price jump is read the same way regardless of whether it reflects durable Bayesian updating, trans…
econ.GN2026
Price as Focal Point: Prediction Markets,Conditional Reflexivity, and the Politics of Common Knowledge
Maksym Nechepurenko
Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they…