23 papers
Axient: Manifest-Bound Evidence for On-Chain Financial Protocols: Seven-Layer Derivation, Correlation, Tamper Rejection, and Reproducible Claim Promotion
Maksym Nechepurenko
Hybrid on-chain financial protocols are frequently evaluated with evidence that is individually useful but collectively insufficient: a unit test, transaction receipt, screenshot,…
Axient: Canonical Protocol-Graph Composition for Leveraged Event Markets: Single State Authority, Atomic Composition, Durable Sagas, and Exactly-Once Recovery
Maksym Nechepurenko
A modular leveraged event-market protocol can contain individually correct contracts for risk approval, positions, debt, settlement evidence, credit pools, junior backstops, reserv…
Two Models of Event Finality: Functional Alignment, Contestability, and Empirical Comparability on Polymarket and Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko
Event contracts reach economic finality through different institutional paths. Polymarket distinguishes oracle adjudication, adapter consumption, Conditional Tokens payout recordin…
Price Discovery at the Boundary of Contractual Decidability: Terminal-Value Gaps, Trading Availability, and Venue Finality on Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko
This paper studies price discovery around contractual decidability rather than an arbitrary venue label. Its upstream lifecycle and decidability clocks are specified in Papers 7.1…
Outcome Determination and Settlement Finality on Kalshi: Public State Paths, Prospective Measurement, and Empirical Identification
Maksym Nechepurenko
Event-contract settlement is a state path rather than a universal timestamp. Using a registered seven-day enrollment and seven-day administrative follow-up on Kalshi, this paper di…
From Public Evidence to Contractual Outcome: First and Stable Decidability on Kalshi
Maksym Nechepurenko
Public evidence can become sufficient to settle a prediction-market contract before the venue records its first determination, but the relevant boundary depends on the applicable r…
On-Demand Combinatorial Event Markets on Kalshi: Instantiation, Concentration, and Effective Market Breadth
Maksym Nechepurenko
Kalshi's multivariate-event architecture produces market objects on demand from exact selected legs. Across a registered seven-day interval, 190 independently validated temporal sh…
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part II: Protocol Finality and Observed Redemption on Polymarket
Maksym Nechepurenko
An Oracle result is not yet a protocol payout, a redeemable position is not yet collateral in a holder's account, and a redemption event is not a complete measure of economic entit…
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part I: Oracle Adjudication and Semantic Governance on Polymarket
Maksym Nechepurenko
Prediction-market resolution is often reduced to a terminal outcome and one timestamp. That representation is inadequate for leveraged event claims because rule versioning, request…
Axient: On-Chain Credit and Loss Allocation for Leveraged Event Markets: A Venue-Agnostic Protocol for Traders, Credit Providers, Market Makers, and Liquidation Backstops
Maksym Nechepurenko
A physically backed leveraged event position requires real credit: if collateral C receives leverage L, the protocol supplies (L-1)C and uses the combined amount to acquire recogni…
Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko
Leveraged event positions combine a repayable loan with an outcome claim that may become non-tradable before oracle payout is final. This paper specifies Axient, a physically backe…
Per-Market Information Leakage and Order-Flow Skill: Two Methodological Lenses on Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko
April 2026 saw notable methodological convergence in the academic study of informed trading on decentralized prediction markets. Three approaches surfaced almost simultaneously: Mi…
Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases
Maksym Nechepurenko
This paper reports an end-to-end empirical evaluation of the deadline-Information Leakage Score (ILS-dl) extension introduced in the companion methodology paper. The deadline-ILS e…
ForesightFlow: An Information Leakage Score Framework for Prediction Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko
ForesightFlow is an Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework for detecting informed trading on decentralized prediction markets. For an event-resolved binary market, the score qua…
Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems
Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov
Multi-agent LLM systems fail in production at rates between 41% and 87%, mostly due to coordination defects rather than base-model capability. Existing responses split between cata…
Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents
Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel Shuvalov
Evaluating the true forecasting ability of AI agents requires environments that are resistant to environments resistant to overfitting, free from centralized trust, and grounded in…
Fill-Side Behavioral Concentration on Polymarket: Identification Limits under Record-Level Attribution
Maksym Nechepurenko
This paper studies behavioral concentration in Polymarket's public executed-fill record and formalizes what that record can and cannot identify. A pre-publication reconciliation co…
Manipulation, Informed Trading, and Regulation in Leveraged Event-Linked Markets
Maksym Nechepurenko
Leverage does not create manipulation or informed trading in event markets, but it changes their economics. We separate four conduct channels: market-price manipulation, real-world…
A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Design Axes, Failure Modes, and Empirical Evaluability
Maksym Nechepurenko
The label event-linked perpetual often conflates mathematically different contracts. We replace a flat product list with a four-axis taxonomy: underlying geometry, temporal structu…
Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: Failure Modes and Mechanical Stress Tests Using Polymarket Data
Maksym Nechepurenko
We study whether crypto-style perpetual-futures mechanics can be applied to a binary event claim that ultimately pays 0 or 1. A synthetic long entered at price p0 with collateral x…
Information Leakage at Population Scale: An Evaluation of the Polymarket Insider-Relevant Subpopulation, 2020-2026
Maksym Nechepurenko
We carry the deadline-resolved Information Leakage Score (ILS-dl) framework of Nechepurenko (2026a, 2026b) from a single-case proof of concept to a population-scale evaluation acro…
The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
Maksym Nechepurenko
Prediction-market price moves are widely treated as informationally equivalent: a price jump is read the same way regardless of whether it reflects durable Bayesian updating, trans…
Price as Focal Point: Prediction Markets,Conditional Reflexivity, and the Politics of Common Knowledge
Maksym Nechepurenko
Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they…