34 citations · 36 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for
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stat.AP2024
Kairosis: A method for dynamical probability forecast aggregation informed by Bayesian change point detection
Zane Hassoun, Ben Powell, Niall MacKay
We present a new method, "kairosis", for aggregating probability forecasts made over a time period of a single outcome determined at the end of that period. Informed by work on Bay…
stat.AP2019
Changepoint analysis of historical battle deaths
Brennen T. Fagan, Marina I. Knight, Niall J. MacKay +1
It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented,…