34 citations · 58 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers
Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments
Niall MacKay
An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful fo…
Kairosis: A method for dynamical probability forecast aggregation informed by Bayesian change point detection
Zane Hassoun, Ben Powell, Niall MacKay
We present a new method, "kairosis", for aggregating probability forecasts made over a time period of a single outcome determined at the end of that period. Informed by work on Bay…
Robustness of steady state and stochastic cyclicity in generalized coalescence-fragmentation models
Brennen T. Fagan, Niall J. MacKay, A. Jamie Wood
Processes of coalescence and fragmentation are used to understand the time-evolution of the mass distribution of various systems and may result in a steady state or in stable deter…
Stochastic gel-shatter cycles in coalescence-fragmentation models
Brennen T. Fagan, Niall J. MacKay, Dmitri O. Pushkin +1
We describe a new phenomenon in models of coalescence and fragmentation, that of gel-shatter cycles. These are dynamical, unforced, stochastic cycles in which slow, approximately d…
Changepoint analysis of historical battle deaths
Brennen T. Fagan, Marina I. Knight, Niall J. MacKay +1
It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented,…
Of Bombs and Boats and Mice and Men: A Random tour through some scaling laws
Niall MacKay
A trip through some of the standard examples of dimensional analysis and scaling, with further thoughts on yacht prices, growing up, mice, bears and marsupials.