208 citations · 229 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
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physics.ao-ph2009★ 11 cited
Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution
Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins
When climate forecasts are highly uncertain, the optimal mean squared error strategy is to ignore them. When climate forecasts are highly certain, the optimal mean squared error st…
physics.ao-ph2009★ 3 cited
Improving the expected accuracy of forecasts of future climate using a simple bias-variance tradeoff
Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins
We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method c…
physics.ao-ph2009★ 7 cited
CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty
Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins
The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble spread most likely underestimates the real model uncertainty in future climate predictions because of the similarity, and shared defects, of the mode…