33 citations · 39 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for
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stat.AP2024
Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, Sophie Ma Zhu +3
Assessing forecasting performance is a time intensive activity, often requiring months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were accurate. Cognitive tests…
stat.AP2014★ 33 cited
Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs
Ville A. Satopää, Shane T. Jensen, Barbara A. Mellers +2
Most subjective probability aggregation procedures use a single probability judgment from each expert, even though it is common for experts studying real problems to update their p…