36 citations · 176 across the 19 of their papers we have counts for
19 papers
Edgington's Combination Method for Two-Study Meta-Analysis: An Empirical Evaluation in 1226 Meta-Analyses
Samuel Pawel, Saverio Fontana, Jinyu Chen +6
Two-study meta-analyses are common in evidence synthesis but pose major statistical challenges. With only two studies, the between-study variance cannot be reliably estimated, rend…
Extracting Bayesian Evidence from Frequentist p-Values
Frederik Aust, Samuel Pawel, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
The -value and the Bayes factor are measures of evidence that are often considered to be philosophically and mathematically incompatible: The -value quantifies conflict betwe…
Balancing Evidentiary Value and Sample Size of Adaptive Designs with Application to Animal Experiments
Leonhard Held, Fadoua Balabdaoui, Saverio Fontana +1
Reducing the number of experimental units is one of the three pillars of the 3R principles (Replace, Reduce, Refine) in animal research. At the same time, statistical error rates n…
Stabilizing Thompson Sampling with Null Hypothesis Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomization
Samuel Pawel, Leonhard Held
Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) methods can be used to adapt randomization probabilities based on accumulating data, aiming to increase the probability of allocating patients…
Combined P-value Functions for Compatible Effect Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Drug Regulation
Samuel Pawel, Małgorzata Roos, Leonhard Held
The two-trials rule in drug regulation requires statistically significant results from two pivotal trials to demonstrate efficacy. However, it is unclear how the effect estimates f…
A comparison of combined p-value functions for meta-analysis
Leonhard Held, Felix Hofmann, Samuel Pawel
P-value functions are modern statistical tools that unify effect estimation and hypothesis testing and can provide alternative point and interval estimates compared to standard met…
Closed-Form Power and Sample Size Calculations for Bayes Factors
Samuel Pawel, Leonhard Held
Determining an appropriate sample size is a critical element of study design, and the method used to determine it should be consistent with the planned analysis. When the planned a…
Mixture priors for replication studies
Roberto Macrì-Demartino, Leonardo Egidi, Leonhard Held +1
Replication of scientific studies is important for assessing the credibility of their results. However, there is no consensus on how to quantify the extent to which a replication s…
The assessment of replicability using the sum of p-values
Leonhard Held, Samuel Pawel, Charlotte Micheloud
Statistical significance of both the original and the replication study is a commonly used criterion to assess replication attempts, also known as the two-trials rule in drug devel…
Replication of "null results" -- Absence of evidence or evidence of absence?
Samuel Pawel, Rachel Heyard, Charlotte Micheloud +1
In several large-scale replication projects, statistically non-significant results in both the original and the replication study have been interpreted as a "replication success".…
Bayesian Approaches to Designing Replication Studies
Samuel Pawel, Guido Consonni, Leonhard Held
Replication studies are essential for assessing the credibility of claims from original studies. A critical aspect of designing replication studies is determining their sample size…
Power priors for replication studies
Samuel Pawel, Frederik Aust, Leonhard Held +1
The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The li…
When Evidence and Significance Collide
František Bartoš, Samuel Pawel, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
Null hypothesis statistical significance testing (NHST) is the dominant approach for evaluating results from randomized controlled trials. Whereas NHST comes with long-run error ra…
Evidential Calibration of Confidence Intervals
Samuel Pawel, Alexander Ly, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting B…
Normalized power priors always discount historical data
Samuel Pawel, Frederik Aust, Leonhard Held +1
Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power as the prior distribution for t…
Pitfalls and potentials in simulation studies: Questionable research practices in comparative simulation studies allow for spurious claims of superiority of any method
Samuel Pawel, Lucas Kook, Kelly Reeve
Comparative simulation studies are workhorse tools for benchmarking statistical methods. As with other empirical studies, the success of simulation studies hinges on the quality of…
Reverse-Bayes methods for evidence assessment and research synthesis
Leonhard Held, Robert Matthews, Manuela Ott +1
It is now widely accepted that the standard inferential toolkit used by the scientific research community -- null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST) -- is not fit for purpose.…
The assessment of replication success based on relative effect size
Leonhard Held, Charlotte Micheloud, Samuel Pawel
Replication studies are increasingly conducted in order to confirm original findings. However, there is no established standard how to assess replication success and in practice ma…
The sceptical Bayes factor for the assessment of replication success
Samuel Pawel, Leonhard Held
Replication studies are increasingly conducted but there is no established statistical criterion for replication success. We propose a novel approach combining reverse-Bayes analys…