2 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Extremes on Rewind: Generating 1,000-Member Ensembles Initialized at a Final Condition
Jerry Lin, Mu-Ting Chien, Mansi Sakarvadia +1
Scenario planning for rare, high-impact events often requires massive ensembles to stochastically sample relevant trajectories. Although autoregressive weather emulators can effici…
physics.ao-ph2025
Turning Up the Heat: Assessing 2-m Temperature Forecast Errors in AI Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves
Kelsey E. Ennis, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Marybeth C. Arcodia +2
Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, it is increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to p…