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math.ST2026
Seeing the Forest for the Trees: The Gaussian Process Limit of BART
Cory McCartan, Melody Huang
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have shown state-of-the-art performance in both prediction and causal inference problems. Previous theoretical work has attempted to expla…
stat.AP2026
Generalized Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for Redistricting Simulation
Philip O'Sullivan, Kosuke Imai, Cory McCartan
Simulation methods have become important tools for quantifying partisan and racial bias in redistricting plans. We generalize the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm of McCartan…
stat.AP2026
The Role of Confounders and Linearity in Ecological Inference: A Reassessment
Shiro Kuriwaki, Cory McCartan
Estimating conditional means using only the marginal means available from aggregate data is known as the ecological inference problem. We reassess this literature, arguing that it…