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math.ST2026
On equitable scoring functions and optimal forecasting behaviour
Robert J. Taggart, Nicholas Loveday
Equitable scoring functions have a long history in meteorological forecast verification and have recently gained renewed prominence through the use of the Stable Equitable Error in…
math.ST2026
On the evaluation of time-to-event, survival time and first passage time forecasts
Robert J. Taggart, Nicholas Loveday, Simon Louis
Time-to-event forecasts are essential when decisions depend on event timing. This article develops a framework for evaluating such forecasts when the event has not yet occurred or…