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stat.ME2025
Surprisingly-early bias in forecasts for unscheduled events
Niklas V. Lehmann
When a dataset contains forecasts on unscheduled events, such as natural catastrophes, outcomes may be censored or ``hidden'' since some events have not yet occurred. This article…
econ.GN2025
Smart treaties: A path to binding agreements in international relations?
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
Can we create binding agreements between nations? Recently, scholars have argued that blockchain technology enables us to do so. Given that this could greatly affect the anarchical…