2 citations · 2 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers
Time preference effects in forecasting
Yannick Hoga, Niklas V. Lehmann
We study the evaluation of forecasts regarding the timing and occurrence of uncertain future events, such as volcanic eruptions, the start of a war or the beginning of a recession.…
Surprisingly-early bias in forecasts for unscheduled events
Niklas V. Lehmann
When a dataset contains forecasts on unscheduled events, such as natural catastrophes, outcomes may be censored or ``hidden'' since some events have not yet occurred. This article…
Smart treaties: A path to binding agreements in international relations?
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
Can we create binding agreements between nations? Recently, scholars have argued that blockchain technology enables us to do so. Given that this could greatly affect the anarchical…
Mechanisms for belief elicitation without ground truth
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
This review article examines the challenge of eliciting truthful information from multiple individuals when such information cannot be verified, a problem known as information elic…
Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts
Niklas Valentin Lehmann
Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournamen…
Exploring the stability of solar geoengineering agreements
Niklas V. Lehmann
A simple model is introduced to study the cooperative behavior of nations regarding solar geoengineering. The results of this model are explored through numerical methods. A genera…