4 papers
Demystifying Data-Driven Probabilistic Medium-Range Weather Forecasting
Jean Kossaifi, Nikola Kovachki, Morteza Mardani +15
The recent revolution in data-driven methods for weather forecasting has lead to a fragmented landscape of complex, bespoke architectures and training strategies, obscuring the fun…
Learning Accurate Storm-Scale Evolution from Observations
Jaideep Pathak, Mohammad Shoaib Abbas, Peter Harrington +10
Accurate short-term prediction of clouds and precipitation is critical for severe weather warnings, aviation safety, and renewable energy operations. Forecasts at this timescale ar…
Long-Range Distillation: Distilling 10,000 Years of Simulated Climate into Long Timestep AI Weather Models
Scott A. Martin, Noah Brenowitz, Dale Durran +1
Accurate long-range weather forecasting remains a major challenge for AI models, both because errors accumulate over autoregressive rollouts and because reanalysis datasets used fo…
FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale
Boris Bonev, Thorsten Kurth, Ankur Mahesh +7
FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed…