110 citations · 110 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers
Exceedance Probabilities for Large Earthquakes From DIY Local Earthquake Ensemble Nowcasting and Forecasting
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a def…
Simulating Subterranean Fluid Injection through Iteration on the VirtualQuake Model
Spence Norwood, John Rundle
This work extends the VirtualQuake earthquake simulation framework to incorporate the effects of fluid injection on fault stability and induced seismicity. Reworking VirtualQuake i…
Calendar Time Local Earthquake Forecasts from Earthquake Nowcasts: A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Ensemble Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughmann, Andrea Donnellan +3
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS <…
Seismic quiescence and activation prior to the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake
K. Z. Nanjo, J. Yazbeck, I. T. Baughman +1
The 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake in the Kamchatka-Kuril subduction system provides a unique opportunity to investigate the preparatory processes of a great subduction event. Desp…
From Local Earthquake Nowcasting to Natural Time Forecasting: A Simple Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Method
John B Rundle, Ian Baughman, Andrea Donnellan +2
Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "coun…
Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting
Alireza Jafari, Geoffrey Fox, John B. Rundle +2
Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities remains a crucial and enduring objective aimed at reducing casualties. This mul…
Nowcasting Earthquakes with QuakeGPT: Methods and First Results
John B. Rundle, Geoffrey Fox, Andrea Donnellan +1
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seis…
A damage-mechanics model for fracture nucleation and propagation
G. Yakovlev, J. D. Gran, D. L. Turcotte +2
In this paper a composite model for earthquake rupture initiation and propagation is proposed. The model includes aspects of damage mechanics, fiber-bundle models, and slider-block…
Earthquake forecasting and its verification
James R. Holliday, Kazuyoshi Z. Nanjo, Kristy F. Tiampo +2
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments…