3 papers
stat.AP2025
Change point detection in ERA5 ground temperature time series
Fatemeh Aghaei A., Ewan T. Phillips, Holger Kantz
We analyze the ERA5 reanalysis 2-meter temperature time series on all land grid points using change point analysis. We fit two linear slopes to the data with the constraint that th…
physics.ao-ph2025
Utilizing long memory and circulation patterns for stochastic forecasts of temperature extremes
Johannes A. Kassel, Holger Kantz
Long memory and circulation patterns are potential sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Here, we infer one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic models of daily temperature w…
cond-mat.stat-mech2024
The stabilizing role of multiplicative noise in non-confining potentials
Ewan T. Phillips, Benjamin Lindner, Holger Kantz
We provide a simple framework for the study of parametric (multiplicative) noise, making use of scale parameters. We show that for a large class of stochastic differential equation…