7 citations · 12 across the 10 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, Sophie Ma Zhu +3
Assessing forecasting performance is a time intensive activity, often requiring months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were accurate. Cognitive tests…
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
Ezra Karger, Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han +4
Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no frame…
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy
Philipp Schoenegger, Peter S. Park, Ezra Karger +2
Large language models (LLMs) match and sometimes exceeding human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment human judgement in a forecasting…