3 papers
cs.GT2025
WOMAC: A Mechanism For Prediction Competitions
Siddarth Srinivasan, Tao Lin, Connacher Murphy +3
Competitions are widely used to identify top performers in judgmental forecasting and machine learning, and the standard competition design ranks competitors based on their cumulat…
cs.GT2025
Tell Me Why: Incentivizing Explanations
Siddarth Srinivasan, Ezra Karger, Michiel Bakker +1
Common sense suggests that when individuals explain why they believe something, we can arrive at more accurate conclusions than when they simply state what they believe. Yet, there…
stat.AP2024
Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, Sophie Ma Zhu +3
Assessing forecasting performance is a time intensive activity, often requiring months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were accurate. Cognitive tests…