activity
20232026
most citedMoving from Machine Learning to Statistics: the case of Expected Points in American football

1 citations · 1 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for

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7 papers · 1 filter

stat.AP2026

Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus

Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner

Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…

stat.AP2026

Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance

Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Maximilian Gebauer, Victoria Lee +2

Evaluating offensive linemen and pass rushers at the player level is difficult because observable outcomes are sparse, opponent-dependent, and strongly shaped by surrounding contex…

stat.AP2026

The Blown Lead Paradox: A Pathwise Calibration Benchmark for Win Probability Forecasts

Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner

Live win probabilities have given sports collapses a common numerical language: the highest win probability attained by the team that eventually lost. Yet this familiar number is a…

stat.AP2025

Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy

Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner

Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…

stat.AP2025

Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance

Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner

We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…

stat.AP2024

The Loser's Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function

Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner

A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlle…