1 citations · 1 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
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Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…
Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Maximilian Gebauer, Victoria Lee +2
Evaluating offensive linemen and pass rushers at the player level is difficult because observable outcomes are sparse, opponent-dependent, and strongly shaped by surrounding contex…
The Blown Lead Paradox: A Pathwise Calibration Benchmark for Win Probability Forecasts
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Live win probabilities have given sports collapses a common numerical language: the highest win probability attained by the team that eventually lost. Yet this familiar number is a…
Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy
Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…
Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…
The Loser's Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlle…