88 citations · 179 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
11 papers
Dummy RAPM: Representing Low-Minute Players in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus
Kenny Watts, Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) uses stint-level lineup indicators to estimate player contributions to scoring margin. When low-minute player columns are removed, their stin…
Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Protection and Pass Rush
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Maximilian Gebauer, Victoria Lee +2
Evaluating NFL pass protectors and rushers is difficult because observed win rates reflect both player performance and the difficulty of the blocking assignments each player faces.…
The Blown Lead Paradox: A Pathwise Calibration Benchmark for Win Probability Forecasts
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, Abraham J. Wyner
Live win probabilities have given sports collapses a common numerical language: the highest win probability attained by the team that eventually lost. Yet this familiar number is a…
Separating Intent from Execution: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy
Matt Ludwig, Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However,…
Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA To…
The Loser's Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function
Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner
A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlle…
Moving from Machine Learning to Statistics: the case of Expected Points in American football
Ryan S. Brill, Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande +1
Expected points is a value function fundamental to player evaluation and strategic in-game decision-making across sports analytics, particularly in American football. To estimate e…
Exploring the Difficulty of Estimating Win Probability: A Simulation Study
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship betwee…
Analytics, have some humility: a statistical view of fourth-down decision making
Ryan S. Brill, Ronald Yurko, Abraham J. Wyner
The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates a…
A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pitch Framing
Sameer K. Deshpande, Abraham J. Wyner
Since the advent of high-resolution pitch tracking data (PITCHf/x), many in the sabermetrics community have attempted to quantify a Major League Baseball catcher's ability to "fram…
Estimating an NBA player's impact on his team's chances of winning
Sameer K. Deshpande, Shane T. Jensen
Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. Th…