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physics.geo-ph2026
Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade
Davide Zaccagnino, Didier Sornette, Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino +1
Campi Flegrei, a large caldera in southern Italy, is among the most hazardous volcanic systems on Earth, directly threatening over one million people. Since 2005, it has entered a…
physics.geo-ph2026
Primary creep encodes time to failure across laboratory and natural systems
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, a…
physics.geo-ph2026
Universal scaling between precursory duration and event size across mechanically driven geohazards
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Many catastrophic events, including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, are preceded by an observable acceleration phase that offers a critical windo…