2 citations · 4 across the 11 of their papers we have counts for
11 papers · 1 filter
Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade
Davide Zaccagnino, Didier Sornette, Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino +1
Campi Flegrei, a large caldera in southern Italy, is among the most hazardous volcanic systems on Earth, directly threatening over one million people. Since 2005, it has entered a…
Primary creep encodes time to failure across laboratory and natural systems
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, a…
Universal scaling between precursory duration and event size across mechanically driven geohazards
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Many catastrophic events, including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, are preceded by an observable acceleration phase that offers a critical windo…
Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette, William W. Chadwick +3
We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physi…
Emergence of Finite-Time Singularities from Accelerated Event Recurrence: Insights into the Mechanism of Catastrophic Failure
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By repr…
Endo-exo classification of episodic rock creep in deep mines: Implications for forecasting catastrophic failure
Qinghua Lei, Daniel Francois Malan, Didier Sornette
Rock masses in deep underground environments under high in-situ stress often exhibit episodic creep behavior, driven by complex interactions between external perturbation and inter…
Oscillatory finite-time singularities in rockbursts
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Forecasting violent rockbursts remains a formidable challenge due to significant uncertainties involved. One major uncertainty arises from the intermittency of rock failure process…
Log-Periodic Precursors to Volcanic Eruptions: Evidence from 34 Events
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the spor…
Log-Periodic Power Law Singularities in Landslide Dynamics: Statistical Evidence from 52 Crises
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Landslide movements typically show a series of progressively shorter quiescent phases, punctuated by sudden bursts during an acceleration crisis. We propose that such intermittent…
Generalized failure law for landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Catastrophic failures have momentous impact in many scientific and technological fields but remain challenging to understand and predict. One key difficulty lies in the burstiness…
Endo-exo framework for a unifying classification of episodic landslide movements
Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette
Landslides exhibit intermittent gravity-driven downslope movements developing over days to years before a possible major collapse, commonly boosted by external events like precipit…