4 papers
Multi-scale measures of time-varying epidemic spread on human mobility networks
Cathal Mills, Benjamin Reddy, William S. Hart +5
Human movement drives the spatial spread and persistence of many infectious diseases, yet existing theory and real-time operational tools for inferring the instantaneous reproducti…
A note on conditional densities, Bayes' rule, and recent criticisms of Bayesian inference
Alex Yan, Cathal Mills, Augustin Marignier +2
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the paramet…
A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling
Nicholas Steyn, Freddie Bickford Smith, Cathal Mills +3
Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sou…
Renewal equations for vector-borne diseases
Cathal Mills, Tarek Alrefae, William S. Hart +5
During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used…