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20242026
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math.PR2026

Genealogical processes of sequential Monte Carlo methods and other non-neutral population models under rapid mutation

Jere Koskela, Paul A. Jenkins, Adam M. Johansen +1

We show that genealogical trees arising from a broad class of non-neutral models of population evolution converge to the Kingman coalescent under a suitable rescaling of time. As w…

math.PR2025

A debiased Bernoulli factory and unbiased estimation of a probability

Jere Koskela, Toni Karvonen, Krzysztof Łatuszyński +1

Given a known function and a random but almost surely finite number of independent, Ber-distributed random variables with unknown , w…

math.PR2025

The effective strength of selection in random environment

Adrián González Casanova, Dario Spanò, Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We analyse a family of two-types Wright-Fisher models with selection in a random environment and skewed offspring distribution. We provide a calculable criterion to quantify the im…

math.PR2024

Excursion theory for the Wright-Fisher diffusion

Paul A. Jenkins, Jere Koskela, Victor M. Rivero +3

In this work, we develop excursion theory for the Wright--Fisher diffusion with mutation. Our construction is intermediate between the classical excursion theory where all excursio…

math.PR2024

Dual process in the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion

Robert C. Griffiths, Matteo Ruggiero, Dario Spanò +1

The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion takes values in the infinite ordered simplex and extends the celebrated infinitely-many-neutral-alleles model, having a two-parameter…