94 citations · 183 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers · 1 filter
Physics-Based Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment: A New Paradigm for Earthquake Forecasting
Davide Zaccagnino, Didier Sornette
Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characteri…
Design and Implementation of a 25-Yr Pseudoprospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in China (AoyuX)
Jiawei Li, Qingyuan Zhang, Didier Sornette
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated using log-likelihood (LL) scores for the full distribution of earthquake counts. However, fat tails and out-…
Unifying the Gutenberg-Richter Law with Probabilistic Catalog Completeness
Jiawei Li, Xinyi Wang, Didier Sornette
We propose a probabilistic approach to modeling catalog incompleteness through four candidate augmented Gutenberg-Richter (GR) laws, which incorporates incompleteness into the freq…
Statistical Physics Approaches to Seismicity
D. Sornette, M. J. Werner
This entry in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Springer present a summary of some of the concepts and calculational tools that have been developed in attempts to…
Magnitude Uncertainties Impact Seismic Rate Estimates, Forecasts and Predictability Experiments
M. J. Werner, D. Sornette
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observation…