111 citations · 243 across the 13 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers · 2 filters
Repeat Voting: Two-Vote May Lead More People To Vote
Sergiu Hart
A "repeat voting" procedure is proposed, whereby voting is carried out in two identical rounds. Every voter can vote in each round, the results of the first round are made public b…
Forecast Hedging and Calibration
Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart
Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are close. We develop the concept of forecast hedging, which consists of choosing the forecasts so as to guarantee…
Smooth Calibration, Leaky Forecasts, Finite Recall, and Nash Dynamics
Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart
We propose to smooth out the calibration score, which measures how good a forecaster is, by combining nearby forecasts. While regular calibration can be guaranteed only by randomiz…
Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism
Sergiu Hart, Yosef Rinott
The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true state. This generalizes to notions of…
Calibrated Forecasts: The Minimax Proof
Sergiu Hart
A formal write-up of the simple proof (1995) of the existence of calibrated forecasts by the minimax theorem, which moreover shows that periods suffice to guarantee a calibra…
"Calibeating": Beating Forecasters at Their Own Game
Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart
In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier…