6 papers
Measles transmission and surveillance in open subcommunities
Niket Thakkar
We're often in a situation where we have models of measles transmission that are stuck at a coarse population scale. This paper is about increasing their resolution or, said differ…
A mark and recapture perspective on vaccination touchpoints
Niket Thakkar
This paper considers large-scale vaccination campaigns, a major platform for vaccine access in a lot of the world, as a recapture estimate of the target population marked by routin…
Seasonality and susceptibility from measles time series
Niket Thakkar, Sonia Jindal, Katherine Rosenfeld
This paper develops mathematical tools to estimate seasonal changes in measles transmission rates and corresponding variation in population susceptibility. The tools are designed t…
A generating function perspective on the transmission forest
Niket Thakkar, Mike Famulare
In a previous paper, we showed that a compartmental stochastic process model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission could be fit to time series data and then reinterpreted as a collection of i…
COVID-19 epidemiology as emergent behavior on a dynamic transmission forest
Niket Thakkar, Mike Famulare
In this paper we create a compartmental, stochastic process model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, where the process's mean and variance have distinct dynamics. The model is fit to time…
A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles case detection rates
Niket Thakkar
The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even…