84 citations · 86 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Dynamic Attention (DynAttn): Interpretable High-Dimensional Spatio-Temporal Forecasting (with Application to Conflict Fatalities)
Stefano M. Iacus, Haodong Qi, Marcello Carammia +1
Forecasting conflict-related fatalities remains a central challenge in political science and policy analysis due to the sparse, bursty, and highly non-stationary nature of violence…
Forecasting Change in Conflict Fatalities with Dynamic Elastic Net
Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia, Stefano Maria Iacus
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of…
Forecasting asylum-related migration flows with machine learning and data at scale
Marcello Carammia, Stefano Maria Iacus, Teddy Wilkin
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprep…