84 citations · 86 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers
Dynamic Attention (DynAttn): Interpretable High-Dimensional Spatio-Temporal Forecasting (with Application to Conflict Fatalities)
Stefano M. Iacus, Haodong Qi, Marcello Carammia +1
Forecasting conflict-related fatalities remains a central challenge in political science and policy analysis due to the sparse, bursty, and highly non-stationary nature of violence…
The Human Flourishing Geographic Index: A County-Level Dataset for the United States, 2013--2023
Stefano M. Iacus, Devika Jain, Andrea Nasuto +3
Quantifying human flourishing, a multidimensional construct including happiness, health, purpose, virtue, relationships, and financial stability, is critical for understanding soci…
Rethinking Scale: The Efficacy of Fine-Tuned Open-Source LLMs in Large-Scale Reproducible Social Science Research
Marcello Carammia, Stefano Maria Iacus, Giuseppe Porro
Large Language Models (LLMs) are distinguished by their architecture, which dictates their parameter size and performance capabilities. Social scientists have increasingly adopted…
Forecasting Change in Conflict Fatalities with Dynamic Elastic Net
Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia, Stefano Maria Iacus
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of…
Forecasting asylum-related migration flows with machine learning and data at scale
Marcello Carammia, Stefano Maria Iacus, Teddy Wilkin
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprep…