18 citations · 33 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers
Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events
Daniel M. Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E. Abbas +26
Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we deve…
The Dynamics of Leverage and the Belief Distribution of Wealth
Bikramaditya Datta, Rajiv Sethi
The scale and terms of aggregate borrowing in an economy depend on the manner in which wealth is distributed across potential creditors with heterogeneous beliefs about the future.…
Models, Markets, and the Forecasting of Elections
Rajiv Sethi, Julie Seager, Emily Cai +2
We examine probabilistic forecasts for battleground states in the 2020 US presidential election, using daily data from two sources over seven months: a model published by The Econo…
Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes
Charles D. Brummitt, Rajiv Sethi, Duncan J. Watts
We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible int…