62 citations · 313 across the 18 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers · 1 filter
Real-time modelling of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England 2020-2023: a challenging data integration
Paul J Birrell, Joshua Blake, Joel Kandiah +12
A central pillar of the UK's response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was the provision of up-to-the moment nowcasts and short term projections to monitor current trends in transmission…
The NOSTRA model: coherent estimation of infection sources in the case of possible nosocomial transmission
David J Pascall, Chris Jackson, Stephanie Evans +8
Nosocomial infections have important consequences for patients and hospital staff: they worsen patient outcomes and their management stresses already overburdened health systems. A…
Inferring Epidemics from Multiple Dependent Data via Pseudo-Marginal Methods
Alice Corbella, Anne M Presanis, Paul J Birrell +1
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from th…
Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study
Peter Kirwan, Andre Charlett, Paul Birrell +5
Widespread vaccination campaigns have changed the landscape for COVID-19, vastly altering symptoms and reducing morbidity and mortality. We estimate trends in mortality by month of…
Value of Information: Sensitivity Analysis and Research Design in Bayesian Evidence Synthesis
Christopher Jackson, Anne Presanis, Stefano Conti +1
Suppose we have a Bayesian model which combines evidence from several different sources. We want to know which model parameters most affect the estimate or decision from the model,…
Synthesising evidence to estimate pandemic (2009) A/H1N1 influenza severity in 2009-2011
Anne M. Presanis, Richard G. Pebody, Paul J. Birrell +5
Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fat…
Reconstructing transmission trees for communicable diseases using densely sampled genetic data
Colin J. Worby, Philip D. O'Neill, Theodore Kypraios +5
Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding imp…
Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: A multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach
Stefano Conti, Anne M. Presanis, Maaike G. van Veen +4
Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a dispara…