12 papers
Global reanalysis from observations alone with machine learning
Peter Lean, Ewan Pinnington, Patrick Laloyaux +9
Earth system reanalysis datasets are foundational for weather and climate research and provide the gridded training data used by most machine learning weather prediction systems. H…
AIFS-SUBS: Extending Data-Driven Forecasting to Sub-Seasonal Timescales
Jakob Schloer, Steffen Tietsche, Christopher D. Roberts +6
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors ac…
AIFS-DOP: End-to-End Medium-Range Weather Prediction from Observations Alone with Machine Learning
Ewan Pinnington, Peter Lean, Mihai Alexe +8
We introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System for Direct Observation Prediction (AIFS-DOP). AIFS-DOP is trained on a 40-year harmonized dataset of gridded observation…
Optimal Carbon Prices in an Unequal World: The Role of Regional Welfare Weights
Simon F. Lang
How should nations price carbon? This paper examines how the treatment of global inequality, captured by regional welfare weights, affects optimal carbon prices. I develop theory t…
High-Resolution Probabilistic Data-Driven Weather Modeling with a Stretched-Grid
Even Marius Nordhagen, Håvard Homleid Haugen, HÃ¥vard Homleid Haugen +12
We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model providing ensembles of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary ensemble size and forecast length. The…
Using data assimilation tools to dissect GraphDOP
Patrick Laloyaux, Mihai Alexe, Eulalie Boucher +5
The Data Assimilation (DA) community has been developing various diagnostics to understand the importance of the observing system in accurately forecasting the weather. They usuall…