2 citations · 5 across the 6 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers · 2 filters
Agreement Implies Accuracy for Substitutable Signals
Rafael Frongillo, Eric Neyman, Bo Waggoner
Inspired by Aumann's agreement theorem, Scott Aaronson studied the amount of communication necessary for two Bayesian experts to approximately agree on the expectation of a random…
Are You Smarter Than a Random Expert? The Robust Aggregation of Substitutable Signals
Eric Neyman, Tim Roughgarden
The problem of aggregating expert forecasts is ubiquitous in fields as wide-ranging as machine learning, economics, climate science, and national security. Despite this, our theore…
Strictly Proper Contract Functions Can Be Arbitrage-Free
Eric Neyman, Tim Roughgarden
We consider mechanisms for truthfully eliciting probabilistic predictions from a group of experts. The standard approach -- using a proper scoring rule to separately reward each ex…
From Proper Scoring Rules to Max-Min Optimal Forecast Aggregation
Eric Neyman, Tim Roughgarden
This paper forges a strong connection between two seemingly unrelated forecasting problems: incentive-compatible forecast elicitation and forecast aggregation. Proper scoring rules…