3 papers
stat.AP2021
Towards reliable projections of global mean surface temperature
Philip G. Sansom, Donald Cummins, Stephan Siegert +1
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temper…
stat.AP2019
How are emergent constraints quantifying uncertainty and what do they leave behind?
Daniel B. Williamson, Philip G. Sansom
The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recen…
stat.AP2018
State-space modeling of intra-seasonal persistence in daily climate indices: a data-driven approach for seasonal forecasting
Philip G. Sansom, David B. Stephenson, Daniel B. Williamson
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. W…